tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6484906701562257442023-11-15T23:24:08.414-08:00Green Underworld: Notes on Green ChemistryOriginal opinion and analysis on the business of renewable "green" chemicals.Cleantech Datahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05549639383613938571noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648490670156225744.post-16143155725520496412010-09-17T10:08:00.000-07:002010-09-17T10:08:06.694-07:00Biomass Magazine: "Unearthing Green Scams"Catching up on my reading I see that there's a nice article in Biomass Magazine on a pet topic of mine, the rise of the "green" scam. <br />
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Robert Rapier is quoted, as well as FINRA (the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority). Both have been out front on this and I think the article deserves a wide audience.<br />
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Author Anna Austin pegs the topic neatly in her first sentence —<br />
<blockquote><i>Historically, the number of investment fraud cases in a given industry increases with the level of hype surrounding it. </i></blockquote><br />
Read the article here: <a href="http://www.biomassmagazine.com/article.jsp?article_id=3851&q=&page=all">Biomass Magazine: "Unearthing Green Scams"</a>Cleantech Datahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05549639383613938571noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648490670156225744.post-18994897319021331942010-06-14T06:31:00.000-07:002010-06-14T06:31:26.286-07:00The game is afoot! Bioformix LLCI have a lot of catching up to do after a month dominated by a contract job that went long.<br />
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I need to update my database of green chemistry startups, cross-referencing new info from the SEC and the CCR, and much more. But first a detour.<br />
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An update from a Linkedin friend yesterday said that he is "now following <span class="miniprofile-container
http://www.linkedin.com/companies/721086?miniprofile=
miniprofile-initialized" data-li-getjs="http://static.linkedin.com/scds/common/build-516_7_3396-prod/js/apps/CompanyFollow.js" data-tracking="NUS_DIG_CMPY_FOL-prof" id="yui-gen29"><a href="http://www.linkedin.com/companies/721086?trk=NUS_DIG_CMPY_FOL-prof">Bioformix, LLC."</a></span> Thanks, Linkedin!<br />
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What is Bioformix? A stealth-mode angel-funded green chemistry start-up. Just my thing!<br />
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I'll take a look and find out what I can. I'll be back to share what I learn.Cleantech Datahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05549639383613938571noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648490670156225744.post-8125194116857544852010-04-28T06:42:00.000-07:002010-04-28T06:42:00.118-07:00A primer on snooping on start-ups.The next month is going to be very busy for me; I will have a tough time keeping up the blog. I thought it would be a good idea to get out a quick post to entertain and enlighten you before I disappear.<br />
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<b>Snooping on start-up companies.</b> <br />
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In much of my work, I am sleuthing energy or chemistry companies that are still in their earliest development, seed stage or even pre-seed. I have posted tidbits on a few of these mysterious start-ups (Rennovia, Novogy, Reluceo) over the past few months. These are companies that have recently shown up on the radar, but few people outside of their inner circle know what they are up to. <br />
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Early stage companies are new, small, and sometimes secretive. If it is your job to develop information on them, you can have a rough time if you don't know where to start. This post shows how I go about digging up leads about a new and mysterious start-up. I will share a few pointers on locating business information found in public records or on the web. This is a little tedious at times, but the pay-off is information that is not in press releases or other carefully managed corporate communications. <br />
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<b>Disclosure.</b> <br />
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I have used the example of Joule Biotechnologies. I have no direct relationship with Joule and no axe to grind. I chose Joule because it is a good example of a start-up company that has stimulated a lot of speculation in the cleantech media, much of it at odds with the facts.<br />
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<b>Start at the start.</b><br />
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A start-up is people and ideas. To get to know a start-up, you need to identify the team and their "big idea", or intellectual property. As you develop leads, make and test assumptions to find additional leads. You are assembling a picture of a new company finding itself. <br />
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<b>Who is on the Team?</b><br />
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You need the names of the founders and everyone who is listed alongside them in any legal document related to the start-up. This can be straightforward gumshoe work; retrieving documents and mapping the relationships recorded in them.<br />
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If you are lucky, the start-up is incorporated in a state that has reasonable guidelines on public access to records. One of my favorites is the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Here's a <a href="http://corp.sec.state.ma.us/corp/corpsearch/CorpSearchSummary.asp?FEIN=000960688">link</a> to Joule Biotechnologies, as an example. [Near the bottom you will see a selection list with "ALL FILINGS" at the top. Select "ALL FILINGS", and click the 'view filings' button.]<br />
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The filings list officers and directors. These can change over time, so record the dates, too. Keep track of these names and follow up with searches to find previous relationships among these people.<br />
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Don't forget to check SEC filings. To cast the widest net, use the EDGAR full text <a href="http://searchwww.sec.gov/EDGARFSClient/jsp/EDGAR_MainAccess.jsp">search</a>, to get a solid data point like <a href="javascript:opennew('http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1121702/000104746910004100/a2198019zdef14a.htm','METABOLIX%20INC','');">this</a>:<br />
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<blockquote><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">Johan van Walsem</span><span style="font-size: x-small;">, Vice President of Strategy and Commercial Development, returned to Metabolix in August 2009, following a 16 month period as Senior Vice President, R&D and Bioprocessing at Joule Biotechnologies, a clean technology start-up company located in Cambridge, Massachusetts.</span> </i> </blockquote><br />
You could still be missing inventors and other important team members. You will learn more about these people as you successfully discover more about the ideas and inventions that gave rise to the start-up.<br />
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<b>So what's the big idea? </b><br />
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What is the idea or invention that is the spark of the company? In a stealthy company, this kernel of information can be tricky to pin down. Using indirect evidence, you do what you can to draw a box around what it might be.<br />
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In corporation filings, there is a place on the form to list the nature of the business. Some companies dodge the question and respond that they are organized for "any legal business." Some companies know what they are doing and are specific, as in the case of Joule Biotechnologies. <br />
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In their Foreign Corporation Certificate of Registration, Joule lists their business as<br />
<blockquote><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>Development of products and strategies relating to the research development, design, manufacture and commercialization of bioreactors, industrial bioprocesses and engineered light capturing organisms.</i></span></blockquote>That is still vague, but now we know have a general idea. And we know that in September 2007, the team at Joule had crafted a statement that summed up Joule Biotechnologies at that time.<br />
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The most specific phrase in the filing statement is "engineered light capturing organisms." Remember that unusual wording.<br />
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The US Patent Office has several relevant applications by Joule. You can find these by searching for people on your list of Joule people - you did bring your list, right?. <br />
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What is kind of fun is that you can also find the applications if you query Google with the phrase "engineered light capturing organisms." <br />
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Google replies,<br />
<blockquote><div class="med" style="margin-bottom: 2.3em;"><i><img alt="Information" height="14" src="http://www.google.com/images/yellow_warning.gif" width="14" /> No results found for <b>"engineered light capturing organisms"</b></i></div></blockquote>But <i>the first two alternatives</i> suggested by Google <b>are</b> the patent applications from Joule, including one using the phrase <em>"engineered light</em>-<em>capturing</em>." Pretty cool!<br />
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With patent filings, you get closer to the nitty-gritty of the inventive idea, what they claim to do that no one else can. A complete examination of the material also can be a time-consuming and expensive effort; a case file for a patent application often includes hundreds of pages. So the trick is to get a rapid and accurate sense of what problem is solved by the invention and how it is different from what has come before.<br />
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If you want to know more about Joule's vision for its business, you get a lucky break if you search Federal <a href="http://tess2.uspto.gov/bin/gate.exe?f=login&p_lang=english&p_d=trmk">trademark</a> applications. Joule has submitted 18 applications. Checking out those gets you closer to understanding an internal process that has occured as Joule has refined its identity. Joule has applied for marks such as <i>SOLARDIESEL</i>, <i>SOLARCHEMICAL</i>, and <i>DIRECT-TO-PRODUCT</i>. Each application has assertions about the good and services that Joule protects with each mark, so these anticipate markets and relationships that Joule wants to pursue.<br />
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<b>Method to your madness.</b> <br />
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You need a flexible general method for keeping track of all this data. A concept map or directed graph representation of people and their affiliations and relationships can help keep things orderly. A timeline is useful for organizing events by date. <br />
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<b>Keeping up with new developments.</b><br />
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If you have an ongoing interest in new developments at these start-ups, you will need to repeat the searches over time. Periodically, you check again for new corporation filings, SEC filings, patent and trademark filings, and changes to websites.<b> </b> Some of these updates can be automated, but interpreting the information cannot; you need an informed researcher to review the material. Sometimes the information is in a document recorded as an image and has not been converted to text and automated searches are unhelpful. <br />
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<b>Other places to check - a miscellany.</b><br />
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If the technology has academic origins, there can be licensing agreements mentioned as agenda items in meeting minutes at the academic institution. Start-ups can have relationships with researchers that are disclosed by an Office of Sponsored Research or a similar entity at the academic institution. <br />
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The Federal Central Contractor Registration (CCR) database lists most entities doing business with the Federal government, importantly <i>including applicants for Federal grants</i>. Many start-ups will appear in <a href="https://www.bpn.gov/CCRSearch/Search.aspx">CCR</a> at a very early stage of development.<br />
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<b>A final note.</b><br />
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To keep it generic and instructive, I simplified and streamlined the discovery phase of the research process. There are many other sources and methods that could be discussed, but I hope that this helps you get closer to the information that you need.Cleantech Datahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05549639383613938571noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648490670156225744.post-74905531762574511122010-04-15T07:08:00.000-07:002010-04-15T07:08:11.765-07:00Let's put on a Wikipedia article: what is poly(butylene succinate)? Part I: the basics.My last post provoked good questions about the biodegradable polymer poly(butylene succinate), PBS. What is it? What is it good for? How does it compare to other conventional and "green" plastics?<br />
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To be honest, normally I would suggest the first place to check would be Wikipedia, but there is no entry for poly(butylene succinate), so I guess I'll have to write one.<br />
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With that in mind, I'll make a few posts about PBS as I put together a decent wiki entry. I'm also reaching out to experts for their input.<br />
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</b><br />
<b>Part I: The Basics</b><br />
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First, the basics of the chemistry.<br />
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PBS typically is obtained through polycondensation of 1,4-butanediol and succinic acid. <br />
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The attractiveness of the polymer derives in part from the chemistry and economics of these building blocks and the established nature of the polycondensation process, used in the manufature of PETE.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtCVrNwt2KC31pRts1veTw-QV0Wmn4s87i0XZhAJ4siiDWvW14zbNTQsof99rmIjbTmSMaZj-2f-mezLbNCgHmnaF9stWIr78TROYG5VSi2CLgDSP221FP-ZCylkA_IJsASRoVU_FEC88/s1600/succinate.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgblWyxqjp1sFYADaY22pPxnTrSPK6WzVldhWk4xm8JXflufoTUHmyh_SqP0ASw2pVF1tqVsCP2jMdjToLrESFf8HUsooVl_jtbIaCSX2BuwzHeNWZ1UghJrhuWaa04Y8v2-Jwc_EROL-s/s1600/bdo.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgblWyxqjp1sFYADaY22pPxnTrSPK6WzVldhWk4xm8JXflufoTUHmyh_SqP0ASw2pVF1tqVsCP2jMdjToLrESFf8HUsooVl_jtbIaCSX2BuwzHeNWZ1UghJrhuWaa04Y8v2-Jwc_EROL-s/s320/bdo.png" /></a></div><br />
butanediol<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtCVrNwt2KC31pRts1veTw-QV0Wmn4s87i0XZhAJ4siiDWvW14zbNTQsof99rmIjbTmSMaZj-2f-mezLbNCgHmnaF9stWIr78TROYG5VSi2CLgDSP221FP-ZCylkA_IJsASRoVU_FEC88/s1600/succinate.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtCVrNwt2KC31pRts1veTw-QV0Wmn4s87i0XZhAJ4siiDWvW14zbNTQsof99rmIjbTmSMaZj-2f-mezLbNCgHmnaF9stWIr78TROYG5VSi2CLgDSP221FP-ZCylkA_IJsASRoVU_FEC88/s320/succinate.png" /></a> succinic acid<br />
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Notice how similar these monomers are to one another. In fact, it is <a href="http://www.science.doe.gov/bes/eb/Publications/vision2020.pdf">suggested</a> that in an integrated biorefinery, butanediol could be made from biobased succinic acid. <br />
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To make PBS, equal amounts of succinic acid and 1,4-butanediol are required. A million metric tons of 1,4-butanediol are produced annually, but only 50,000 metric tons of succinic acid. Succinic acid accordingly is not cheap. Changes in the demand for succinic acid and the economic of manufacture are expected to make succinic acid and PBS cheaper and more available.<br />
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Many groups around the world are working on the development of an economical process to manufacture succinic acid via fermentation, from renewable plant-derived materials and CO<span style="font-size: xx-small;">2</span>. <br />
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For recent coverage of the topic, read this post at ICIS.com, "<a href="http://www.icis.com/Articles/2010/02/18/9336112/corrected-bio-succinic-acid-can-beat-petchems-on-price.html">Bio-succinic acid can beat petchems on price" </a><br />
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In Part II, I will finally get to the properties of PBS and how it is used in biodegradable applications.<br />
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Thank you to all who have helped so far!Cleantech Datahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05549639383613938571noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648490670156225744.post-33252695243227232682010-03-30T08:14:00.000-07:002010-03-30T08:14:22.024-07:00Mitsubishi and Thailand's PTT closer to production of biobased poly(butylene succinate) plastic.Mitsubishi and PTT are moving forward with plans to make renewably-sourced poly(butylene succinate), PBS. PBS is biodegradable, but currently is made from petrochemical succinic acid and 1,4-butanediol. Bio-based versions of these monomers will be used at the new project in Thailand.<br />
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In September 2009, Mitsubishi Chemical Corporation, MCC, <a href="http://www.m-kagaku.co.jp/english/newsreleases/2009/20090928-1.html">announced</a> an exploratory joint development with Thailand's PTT, and it appears that the partnership is thriving. Yesterday, Japan Chemical Web <a href="http://mainstream.japanchemicalweb.jp/press/cgi-bin/usr_interface/jcw_page_view_news.cgi?page_code=20100329000501">quoted</a> a Mitsubishi source saying that details of the new operation will be finalized by June or July. The capacity of the facility - a key indicator of the perceived value of the venture - is unknown.<br />
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MCC brings process technology for the manufacture of the succinic acid, and marketing power to sell the PBS through its existing GSPla brand. PTT will contribute expertise in operations and logistics. <br />
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The past year has been one of vigorous global activity in the commercialization of bio-based succinic acid. In addition to the Mitsubishi/PTT venture, plans for bio-based succinic acid production have been announced by BASF/Purac, DSM/Roquette, Myriant, and DNP/ARD.<br />
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If these efforts all come to fruition, worldwide production of succinic acid could increase by as much as 500% in five years. If that happens, we will be hearing a lot more about the virtues of plant-based succinic acid as the challenge shifts to marketing all of that new capacity.<br />
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Success or failure of biobased chemical production is more strongly governed by local economic forces than traditional petrochemical manufacturing. For this new PBS venture, Mitsubishi and PTT have a value chain that makes shrewd use of local factors. Locating the plant in Thailand means an inexpensive and stable supply of biomass, a lower-than-average cost of production, and access to an established market in Japan and growing markets in Asia as a whole.Cleantech Datahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05549639383613938571noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648490670156225744.post-55264293219217761192010-03-29T11:05:00.000-07:002010-03-29T11:05:20.725-07:00Follow my research notes on green fraud. Subtopic "Green Fraud in China" - Disposable Tableware Indiscriminately Marked "Degradable"So many unanswered questions arise from this news item published last year in China. <br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">"<span class="STYLE5">Disposable Tableware Indiscriminately Marked "Degradable"</span></div><span class="news STYLE7"><br />
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<blockquote><div align="justify"><span class="STYLE10">News Alert: Much tableware marked “degradable” on the market are not really environment-friendly products. From December 1st, only the disposable tableware which will be completely degraded into carbon dioxide or methane, water can be labeled as degradable tableware. The new national mandatory standard "General requirements of plastic disposable tableware" has promulgated, and will come into effect on December 1st, after that, the false degradable products will not going to swindle in the market any longer."</span></div></blockquote><div align="justify"><br />
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<span class="STYLE10">My first thought is that since this was fraud in many (most?) cases, why will new standards have any effect?</span><br />
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<span class="STYLE10">link (looking for better ones):</span><br />
<span class="STYLE10">http://www.21cgmt.com/news1.asp </span><br />
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<span class="STYLE10"> </span></div><div align="justify"></div><span class="STYLE10"></span>Cleantech Datahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05549639383613938571noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648490670156225744.post-57906983064903706922010-03-04T05:35:00.000-08:002010-03-04T05:50:09.714-08:00We have been waiting for a peek at Rennovia. We wait no more!My army of webwatching robots reports that Rennovia has lifted the wraps on its website.<br /><br />Take a look for yourself: <a href="http://rennovia.com/">http://rennovia.com/</a><br /><br />My first impression is that it is a lot like Symyx, but focused on renewables.<br /><br />High-throughput catalyst discovery will provide more active or commercially viable catalysts, but renewable chemistry has a lot of other things holding back newcomers in the current market, so Rennovia will be looking for partners, I'm sure, that have sophistication in feedstock logistics and downstream processing.<br /><br />Rennovia's new website alludes to this,<br /><br /><blockquote>These processes are designed to be readily scalable and to employ standard chemical production and purification equipment. Rennovia’s process technology will integrate seamlessly, and potentially employ, existing manufacturing assets. </blockquote>This is a value proposition that has a lot going for it, but has yet to become a buzzword. Rennovia may help to change that.<br /><br /> Here's the new logo and tagline.<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://rennovia.com/Portals/0/logo.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="50" src="http://rennovia.com/Portals/0/logo.gif" width="320" /></a></div><br /><br /><br /><br />Tell me what you think.<br /><br /><br /><a href="http://rennovia.com/Portals/0/logo.gif"></a><br />Cleantech Datahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05549639383613938571noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648490670156225744.post-65460806069060481942010-02-17T12:57:00.000-08:002010-02-17T13:05:48.626-08:00Reluceo: New Green Chemistry Start-Up with Familiar FacesSergey Selifonov and Olga Selifonova of Segetis have a new company: <a href="http://www.reluceo.com/">Reluceo</a><br />
Reluceo has backing from Khosla Ventures, as does Segetis.<br />
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What is their sweet spot?<br />
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From the site - <br />
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Reluceo enables technologies that will lead to products for effectively abating health, environmental, sustainability and economic security concerns. These concerns are widely associated with continuing reliance on polymers made entirely from fossil carbon sources. <br />
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Our technology utilizes C5 and C6 carbohydrates derived from hemicellulose and cellulose feedstocks as well as other bio-based intermediates for creating viable alternatives to petroleum-based products. <br />
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We also work on transitional materials that combine bio-based and fossil-based feedstocks making traditional non-green polymer products greener. <br />
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More news <a href="http://reluceo.com/alpha/news.htm">here</a>.<br />
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[Thanks to Bernard Hasson of SpecialChem for bringing this to my attention]<br />
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Questions about Reluceo I will be working on:<br />
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What are the specific feedstocks and products of interest?<br />
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Why not do this at Segetis?<br />
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I will update when I know more.Cleantech Datahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05549639383613938571noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648490670156225744.post-40567522483097403592010-02-11T09:11:00.000-08:002010-02-12T08:44:08.389-08:00Clues About NovogyI always am interested in what is next for experienced people in the bio-based field. I have been wondering about Novogy.<br />
<a href="http://www.novogyinc.com/">Novogy</a> is a stealth-stage startup composed of ex-Mascoma folks and until today I had a hard time classifying them, because I did not have a clue what they were up to.<br />
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Now I think I do.<br />
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Last week, EPA published a summary of comments received on proposed changes to the Renewable Fuel Standard Program (RFS2). You can get it <a href="http://www.epa.gov/otaq/renewablefuels/420r10003.pdf">here</a> (warning: big PDF).<br />
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Novogy, like others, put in for changes in the standard to protect their interests.<br />
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Novogy's comments (p.114) reveal interest in cellulosic biogas produced from waste sludge which is a residual of the pulp & paper and recycled paper making process. Other comments (pp.94, 276) narrow in on methane from cellulosic biomass.<br />
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I imagine there are more tidbits like this in the summary, but the EPA document is over a thousand pages, so I don't plan to browse it. If you find something surprising, send me note, just to let me know you appreciate the tip.Cleantech Datahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05549639383613938571noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648490670156225744.post-6004242652257065892009-11-19T14:08:00.000-08:002009-11-19T14:08:07.577-08:00What flavor is your biodiesel? Renewable Energy Group Releases "Feedstock and Biodiesel Characteristics"Feedstocks for biodiesel can come from a wide range of agricultural sources. The unique properties of the feedstocks result in many different biodiesel products. <br />
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This has implications for fuel use but also chemical manufacture from biodiesel byproducts (e.g. glycerol), so I was interested to come across a new survey characterizing typical and exotic feedstocks for biodiesel. <br />
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Yesterday, Renewable Energy Group (Ames, IA) released a report that documents the tested properties of common and uncommon feedstocks and the biodiesel produced from these samples. It is a big data-rich report and I am just paging through it, but it is interesting enough to share, in hopes that many people will have a chance to read it.<br />
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This graphic from the report shows the wide range in cloud point for the tested biodiesels, an example of the diversity of products all known as biodiesel. <br />
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The feedstocks tested were algae, babassu, beef tallow, borage, camelina, canola, castor, choice white grease, coconut, coffee, distiller’s corn, Cuphea viscosissima, evening primrose, fish, hemp, hepar, jatropha, jojoba, karanja, Lesquerella fendleri, linseed, Moringa oleifera, mustard, neem, palm, perilla seed, poultry fat, rice bran, soybean, stillingia, sunflower, tung, used cooking oil, and yellow grease.<br />
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The feedstocks were tested for moisture, free fatty acid, kinematic viscosity, FAC color, saponification value, moisture and volatile matter, insoluble impurities, unsaponifiable matter, oxidation stability, sulfur, phosphorous, calcium, and magnesium.<br />
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The biodiesels were tested for cloud point, cold filter plugging point, cold soak filtration, fatty acid profile, relative density, kinematic viscosity, sulfated ash, carbon residue, water and sediment, visual inspection, free and total glycerin, flash point, copper corrosion, phosphorous, calcium, magnesium, total acid number, moisture, sulfur, and oxidation stability.<br />
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Go to the Renewable Energy Group website for the <a href="http://www.regfuel.com/pdfs/Feedstock%20and%20Biodiesel%20Characteristics%20Report.pdf">report</a>.<br />
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I also have my ear to the ground about the Renewable Energy Group and Elevance Renewable Sciences proposal to build an integrated biorefinery in Newton, IA. I'll let you know when I know more.Cleantech Datahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05549639383613938571noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648490670156225744.post-7136430425779446102009-11-16T07:03:00.000-08:002009-11-16T07:03:52.507-08:00Want to grow renewables? Weed early and often.The blogger I follow the most on renewables is Robert Rapier. He is experienced and skeptical, but still in the business himself. <br />
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Here is a typical plum from his recent post "<a href="http://i-r-squared.blogspot.com/2009/11/slides-from-pacific-rim-summit.html">Slides from the Pacific Rim Summit</a>" <br />
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<blockquote>As one cellulosic ethanol executive commented this past week, "<span style="font-style: italic;">These things don't scale like you think they should</span>." That's right, they don't. That's why most technologies don't make it out of the lab. Always better to make conservative claims and then deliver beyond expectations than to make wild claims and fall short.<br />
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He doesn't spell out why it is better to advance cautious claims. But I think it bears discussion. <br />
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Beyond the ethical problems of deception (and self-deception), I believe there are practical dangers. The good will go down with the bad if there is a broad retreat from the high-risk bio-based technology sectors. We all lose if we fail to resist nonsense.<br />
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Innovation must flourish, but saying "yes" to every new scheme is a foolish approach to the unknown. Poor ideas, no matter how sincere, must be weeded out, to give tender seedlings a chance at survival.<br />
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While others drive the plow, I adopt the symbol of the hoe to represent my contribution.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUvOGOskFJl-V_rzN9qsFpynLy7pGYpJaLYRasn6kzUwMrN-ypCZr9Y6EbIsOrQshWeUAzrIpTRYcDJ18yb_UTvdxekQFtxhj1i3q_NT1P7y6oBFg-0r0brBTkYAwzHOI4VsbdRnDAM0M/s1600/gt.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUvOGOskFJl-V_rzN9qsFpynLy7pGYpJaLYRasn6kzUwMrN-ypCZr9Y6EbIsOrQshWeUAzrIpTRYcDJ18yb_UTvdxekQFtxhj1i3q_NT1P7y6oBFg-0r0brBTkYAwzHOI4VsbdRnDAM0M/s320/gt.jpg" /></a><br />
</div>Cleantech Datahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05549639383613938571noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648490670156225744.post-21736554481409343832009-11-11T14:49:00.000-08:002009-11-11T14:49:15.807-08:00Metabolix Debt: $158 MillionYesterday's prospectus from Metabolix puts it very plainly.<br />
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<blockquote><div style="font-family: times;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b> Our future profitability is uncertain, and we have a limited operating history on which you can base your evaluation of our business. </b></span><br />
</div></blockquote><blockquote><div style="font-family: times;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">We have had net operating losses since being founded in 1992. At September 30, 2009, our accumulated deficit was approximately $158 million. Since 1992, we have been engaged solely in research and development and other pre-commercial and early-stage commercial activities. As a part of our strategic alliance, ADM Polymer is constructing the commercial scale Commercial Manufacturing Facility for Mirel.We expect that initial fermentations will be conducted in December 2009, with recovery operations to immediately follow, and we expect that it will require an additional period of time to ramp up production. Until such time, Telles will not have significant revenues from sales of Mirel. No Telles profits will be distributed to us until ADM's cost of constructing the Commercial Manufacturing Facility and any negative net cash flow of Telles funded by ADM have been returned to ADM. Because we have a limited history of commercial operations and we operate in a rapidly evolving industry, we cannot be certain that we will generate sufficient revenue to operate our business and become profitable.</span><br />
</div></blockquote>Others following in their footsteps should look upon their example as a cautionary one. This is not a get-rich-quick industry.Cleantech Datahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05549639383613938571noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648490670156225744.post-84942324612813373662009-11-11T07:16:00.000-08:002009-11-11T10:09:11.526-08:00Lamb plugs: new end use for biodegradable plastic.Bioderived plastics are showing up in all sort of products. <br />
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Normally, I don't care to propogate press releases, but <a href="http://www.plantic.com.au/docs/Plantic_MR_Adept.pdf">this one</a> caught me by surprise.<br />
<blockquote>MELBOURNE, Australia — 6th November 2009 — Adept Limited, New Zealand’s leading plastics product development and manufacturing company in the meat industry, has introduced new biodegradable lamb plugs, made possible through the advanced biopolymer technology of Plantic Technologies Limited. <br />
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The press release goes on to say nice things about Plantic and Adept, but avoids elaborating on lamb plugs. Go figure!<br />
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You probably don't want to know, but if you do want more info, it is <a href="http://meat.adept.co.nz/lambproducts//index_dynamic/containerNameToReplace=Middle/focusModuleID=3594/overideSkinName=product-full.tpl">here</a>. <br />
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To be fair, single use products in animal husbandry and agriculture are a good example of where biodegradables make sense.Cleantech Datahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05549639383613938571noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648490670156225744.post-12445166013219386012009-11-03T09:37:00.000-08:002009-11-03T09:37:19.263-08:00New Bioplastic Data Less Crazy than Some<div style="text-align: left;">An update to my <a href="http://cleantechdata.blogspot.com/2009/10/green-technology-outlook-hazy-with.html">project</a> to track the oddsmakers on bioplastic growth.<br />
</div><div style="text-align: left;"> </div><div style="text-align: left;">I added the new data (marked NEW below) I pulled from the brochure for a new $6000 bioplastic forecast from unnamed source #4. <br />
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The purple line (NEW) is much less insane than the red and the green, pretty much in the same neighborhood as the blue.<br />
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Explosive growth and strong steady growth now each have two sets of numbers. It would be exciting to think of this as a showdown, but I'm afraid that we must wait five years to declare a winner.<br />
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In an upcoming post, I'll go fishing in the memory hole to reminisce about the bioplastic factories announcements of yesteryear; plants that were projected to open, but have yet to pan out.<br />
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Cleantech Datahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05549639383613938571noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648490670156225744.post-58467607232540023232009-11-03T08:04:00.000-08:002009-11-03T11:57:35.314-08:00Greenwash, green-wish, or greenwtf?I mentioned <a href="https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=648490670156225744&postID=3446049569000440753&isPopup=true">yesterday</a> that I had just received word of a new off-the-shelf report projecting bioplastics demand. I have only seen a few figures and a prospectus, and my feelings are mixed.<br />
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The good news is that the numbers are unhysterical; conservative, even. I'll update the <a href="http://cleantechdata.blogspot.com/2009/11/predicting-future-is-hard-episode-1.html">graph</a> to refect the new figures. <br />
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The flyer forecasts Brazil as the top producer of bio-based polymers in 2013. That is a possible development. But, in support of this, the flyer says something dumb.<br />
<blockquote>"Furthermore, once the planned bio-based polyethylene, <i>polypropylene</i> and polyvinyl chloride plants come online, Brazil will become the world’s leading producer of bioplastics in 2013."<br />
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Green polypropylene? Braskem did run a pilot plant that made bio-based polypropylene, and got some PR out of it, but Braskem CEO Bernardo Gradin is on record saying the process is not commercial. <br />
<blockquote>"In addition, Brazil is probably the most effective and productive producer of ethanol and we think that will be the case for some time. Being positioned in Brazil with such technology can be really good in strategic and in operational terms for Braskem. The polypropylene you mentioned was also a breakthrough but it is not in a viable route so far. We are concentrating on polyethylene and we have a team that is developing green polymers. We are looking for international alliances." - <a href="http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2120">Knowledge@Wharton Dec 2008</a> <br />
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It was a grant-supported proof-of-concept, if I recall correctly, and should not be used as a marker on a trendline leading to a product in the marketplace any time soon. Commercial renewable production of polypropylene is a distant prospect at this time, lurking in the uncharted future with lignocellulosic ethanol and other nice ideas. <br />
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Distortions like these are annoying enough when press releases echo through twitter and the blogs, but I expect more from the analysts at top research firms. Somehow the green polypropylene factoid was promoted to fact by researcher and editors. It isn't greenwash; too ignorant for that. I can't call it greenwishing, the bias toward hope that springs renewable.<br />
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I'm calling it greenwtf.Cleantech Datahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05549639383613938571noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648490670156225744.post-34460495690004407532009-11-02T11:18:00.000-08:002009-11-02T11:18:48.281-08:00Predicting the Future is hard: Episode 1 - Bioplastics<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">In my last post, <a href="http://cleantechdata.blogspot.com/2009/10/green-technology-outlook-hazy-with.html">here</a>, I decided it would be fun to put the prognosticators head-to-head, as it were. Here's what I came up with for bioplastics.<br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">In order to avoid giving out free publicity, I have disguised the studies. Feel free to write if you want to know what they are.<br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">These three sets of data come from different sources and may have different definitions, but the most striking result among the sets is the extreme outlier of series HK up to 2015.<br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">I bet you can guess which report has had its forecast repeated in the most press releases in the past year!<br />
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</div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqO6M6J1We34IAsRNOkX7rOJ3ROGLhCFcuMr0Pbo7f5XLyMOGqmZicFLTnrZvGKlY-Dh08nYtUN_9vW4kHGIEr9aANj_B0CNm2_sFMsqxohyk18BKa9V-UMr028XS6mVYgVjZzgJqLGNk/s1600-h/Acr6523467.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="color: black;"></span><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqO6M6J1We34IAsRNOkX7rOJ3ROGLhCFcuMr0Pbo7f5XLyMOGqmZicFLTnrZvGKlY-Dh08nYtUN_9vW4kHGIEr9aANj_B0CNm2_sFMsqxohyk18BKa9V-UMr028XS6mVYgVjZzgJqLGNk/s400/Acr6523467.png" /></a>What industry predictions should I graph next? Cellulosic ethanol? Wind or solar? I'd like your help making up my mind!Cleantech Datahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05549639383613938571noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648490670156225744.post-49602952224530891022009-10-29T13:35:00.001-07:002009-11-02T08:45:30.058-08:00Green technology outlook: hazy, with a flurry of press-releases.A big part of my job is to assess the future course of emerging technologies. This requires that I use a critical eye to examine the data that is available, where it comes from, and how it is made. Sometimes the data available looks more high-risk than the technology it describes!<br />
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Emerging technologies are barely off the ground. There is little solid data to work with, the poor quality of the data allows for varying interpretations, and it is all biased. The more "disruptive" a technology is, the harder it is to model. But without a model for future growth, it is hard to get start-up funding and hard to get changes into the marketplace. <br />
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So what is the entrepreneur or investor to do? One approach is to buy a published report that aligns with their vision of the future. In this scenario, reports that trumpet optimistic figures are more likely to sell. On the road to a business plan or press release, these reports are a tempting short-cut.<br />
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In my search for the real story, these reports can be an obstacle in my path. Repeated by blogs, and tweets, and other reports in turn, I cannot ignore them. Neither can I trust them.<br />
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Beginning with this post, I will try a new approach. As an experiment, I will let the data speak for themselves, charting predictions from several reports at once and sharing the results on the blog.<br />
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Later today, a look at predictions about "bioplastics" <br />
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Let me know what you think.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsc0c7ZDGLgLo9XSkFwz3lVdg-w3f0FZ96_fb2O_5eN2qHrwOx664kMYI84fIviiOKtSTqT37OSpID9pRP0kKTKvfuyDtLOs5rYx8M6J_aSewt03DmTeO282caW25-SgOdTXEpGjSZRD0/s1600-h/2787650322_b54236dd53.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsc0c7ZDGLgLo9XSkFwz3lVdg-w3f0FZ96_fb2O_5eN2qHrwOx664kMYI84fIviiOKtSTqT37OSpID9pRP0kKTKvfuyDtLOs5rYx8M6J_aSewt03DmTeO282caW25-SgOdTXEpGjSZRD0/s320/2787650322_b54236dd53.jpg" /></a><br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Green future: A fun ride for all?<br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Photo: <b><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/abennett96/" rel="dc:creator cc:attributionURL" title="Link to BenSpark's photostream"><b property="foaf:name">BenSpark</b></a> at Flickr</b></span> <br />
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