Monday, November 2, 2009

Predicting the Future is hard: Episode 1 - Bioplastics

In my last post, here, I decided it would be fun to put the prognosticators head-to-head, as it were.  Here's what I came up with for bioplastics.

In order to avoid giving out free publicity, I have disguised the studies.  Feel free to write if you want to know what they are.

These three sets of data come from different sources and may have different definitions, but the most striking result among the sets is the extreme outlier of series HK up to 2015.

I bet you can guess which report has had its forecast repeated in the most press releases in the past year!

What industry predictions should I graph next?  Cellulosic ethanol?   Wind or solar?  I'd like your help making up my mind!

1 comment:

Erik at Cleantech Data said...
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